Weekly Series: mREIT And BDC Recommendations (And Price Targets) As Of 4/27/2025
We aim to retain the same layout from week to week. I hope that makes it easier to find the parts that are most relevant to you.
Weekly Notes From Colorado Wealth Management Fund
Positions: 0 trades
Commentary: We saw many prices trending higher over the last week, though we lack any resolution to the tariff situation. I nearly added to my position in Rexford (REXR) on Monday during the market decline. It recovered towards the end of the day. Sares ended the week higher. Overall, it felt like a pretty tame week, at least aside from Monday morning. Earnings season is underway, which will keep things pretty busy.
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Scott’s ultra brief summary
“Most mREIT BVs slightly increased, once again, this past week. Monday was a down day for BVs but a decent rebound by Friday. All BDC NAVs slightly - modestly increased this week as middle market/high-yield spreads continued to tighten. Basically solidifies why I previously decided there would be no percentage recommendation range downgrades in either sector back in early April (as I was already projecting a mild recession in 2025 - 2026 and believed volatility would eventually partially subside). Volatility has come down a good bit since early April 2025. Recent updates to tariff/trade policy have remained net positive in my opinion (not a "best case" scenario but far from a "worst-case" scenario either). I continue to believe just having the possibility of negotiations is positive. Hope you're having a good weekend.”
Weekly Notes From Scott Kennedy
Positions: 1 trade this past week.
On 4/21/2025. I increased my position in DX at a weighted average purchase price of $11.265 per common share. This was a minor - modest add-on purchase. DX’s 3/31/2025 BV and Q1 2025 core earnings came in basically exactly as projected. DX's sell-off on Monday morning was overdone in my opinion (as stated on Monday morning). I believe this assumption wound up being correct as DX’s stock price moved $1.00+ during the week (validating my “thesis” per se). DX has now moved into my/our HOLD range.
In general, I am being patient regarding selectively deploying capital in attractively-valued mREIT common stocks with a less attractive risk/performance rating. My sector allocation to mREIT common stocks remains high (thus aligning with continuing to hold existing positions and selectively adding for future appreciation over the long-term). Patience remains key as catalysts/events will take time to play out (especially within commercial/multifamily mREITs). During the recent market turmoil, I will continue to remain disciplined regarding “picking and choosing” investments and lot sizes.
Next Week Earnings Report Dates for All Covered mREIT and BDC Stocks:
- Monday Post-Market Close: TWO, FBRT
- Tuesday Pre-Market Open: ARCC
- Wednesday Pre-Market Open: BXMT
- Wednesday Post-Market Close: NLY, NYMT, TSLX
- Thursday Pre-Market Open: OCSL
Out of the stocks listed above, TWO will likely have an earnings assessment article provided Monday night. FBRT and ARCC will likely have an earnings assessment article provided Tuesday night. BXMT and NLY will likely have an earnings assessment article provided Wednesday night. NYMT and TSLX will likely have an earnings assessment article provided Thursday night. OCSL will likely have an earnings assessment article provided Friday night. Regarding FBRT, NYMT, TSLX, and OCSL, I will quickly review top-line metrics and make any necessary “true-up (down)” CURRENT BV/NAV adjustments the night of earnings which will be shown in the subscriber spreadsheets (prior to an earnings assessment article).
BDC Weekly Change: For the 2nd straight week, high yield/speculative-grade credit spreads tightened this past week. This continued to be a positive trend (volatility continued to lower). This was mainly due to continued optimism regarding tariff negotiations. Still, thus far, spreads have modestly widened during calendar Q2 2025 (through 4/25/2025). However, a decent retracement from early April highs.
BDC Other Comments (Current Week):
